译|2025全球临界点报告概要PartII

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01. 新现实 NEW REALITY
随着全球变暖升高1.5℃，地球的气候和自然已经跨过了临界点。
Earth's climate and nature are already passing tipping points as global warming approaches 1.5℃. 
自从2023年，第一个全球临界点报告发布以来，人们对临界点风险的认知提升了。在1.4℃全球升温的影响下，温水珊瑚礁正跨过他们的热力学临界点，并经历前所未有的大规模死亡，这将影响依赖他们的数亿人的生计。部分极地冰盖可能也超过了它们的临界点，并最终会导致全世界的海平面不可逆地上升数米，影响数亿人。跨过临界点会降低地球对人类活动影响的承受能力， 进一步扩大影响，使之成为一个基本的人权问题。
Since the first Global Tipping Points Report in 2023, understanding of tipping point risks has increased. Already at 1.4℃ of global warming, warm water coral reefs are crossing their thermal tipping point and experiencing unprecedented dieback, impairing the livelihoods of hundreds of millions who depend on them. Parts of the polar ice sheets may also have crossed tipping points that would eventually commit the world to several metres of irreversible sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions. Crossing tipping points reduces Earth's ability to cope with human interference, further amplifying impacts, making it a fundamental human rights issue.
02. 不断加剧的风险 ESCALATING RISK
如果升温超过1.5℃，世界将进入一个危险区，进一步的临界点将带来灾难性风险。
Overshooting 1.5℃ puts the worldd in a danger zone where further tipping points pose catastrophic risks.
全球变暖预计在几年内就将超过1.5℃，将人类置于更大的风险之中。气候变化以及森林砍伐一同将亚马逊雨林置于在升温2℃之内大规模死亡的风险之下，威胁着无法估量的生物多样并影响以此为生计的超一亿人。大西洋径向翻转环流（AMOC）同样面临在升温低于2℃时崩溃的风险，这会导致从根本上破坏全球食物和水资源安全，并导致欧洲西北部气温骤降进入严冬。防止跨过气候临界点应该成为法律强制要求。
Global warming is projected to overshoot 1.5℃ within a few years, placing humanity at even greater risk. Climate change and deforestation together put the Amazon rainforest at risk of widespread dieback below 2℃, threatening incalculable damage to biodiversity and impacting over a hundred million who depend on the forest. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is also at risk of collapse below 2℃, which would radically undermine global food and water security and plunge northwest Europe into severe winters. Preventing climate tipping points should be a legal imperative.
03. 预防临界点 PREVENT TIPPING
将1.5℃的升温过冲最小化对于预防气候临界点至关重要。
Minimising overshoot of 1.5℃ is essential to prevent climate tipping points.
每一度的微小变化和每年超过1.5℃的升温，对于防止气候临界点至关重要。为了最大限度降低全球气温超过1.5℃的幅度和持续时间，全球因人类活动产生的温室气体排放物需要在2030年的时候减半（相比于2010年的水平），并在2050年达到净零排放，然后就需要进行温室气体净去除。这需要以前所未有的速度进行脱碳化，快速缓解短期气候污染物——尤其是甲烷排放物，并快速实现可持续且公平的碳减排方案。
Every fraction of a degree and every year over 1.5℃ matters for preenting climate tipping points. To minimise the magnitude and duration of global temperature overshoot above 1.5℃, global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions need to be halved by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels), reach net zero by 2050, and then net greenhouse gas removal needs to occur. This requires unprecedented acceleration in decarbonisation, rapid mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants - especially methane emissions, and rapid scaling of sustainable and equitable carbon removal from the atmosphere.
04. 立即行动 ACT NOW
位于COP30的领导者们必须立刻行动起来，防止破坏性临界点的到来。
Leaders at COP30 must act now to prevent damaging tipping points.
预防破坏性、不可逆临界点的窗口正在快速地关闭。如果在我们行动前，我们只是等着临界点被打破，那就太晚了。目前的国家自主贡献（NDCs）和具有约束力的长期或净零排放目标，仍不足以避免破坏性临界点。这些承诺将导致全球变暖在2100年之前很可能超过2℃。因此，COP30的领导者和全球政策制定者需要采取前所未有的行动，以防止破坏性的临界点。
The window for preventing some damaging, irreversible tipping points is rapidly closing. If we wait for certainty that tipping points have been crossed before we act, it will be too late. Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and binding long-term or net zero targets are not enough to prevent damaging tipping points. They commit the world to global warming that will likely exceed 2℃ before 2100. Hence unprecedented action is needed from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide to prevent damaging tipping points.
05. 立足本地行动 ACT LOCALLY
应对非气候驱动因素有助于避免生物圈的临界点。
Tackling non-climate drivers can help avoid biosphere tipping points.
对于温水珊瑚礁而言，亚马逊雨林和其他生态系统处在越过临界点的危机之中，通过减轻非气候因素的压力，可以帮助提升其抗风险能力。对珊瑚礁而言，这包括了过度捕鱼和过量营养物质输入。对于亚马逊雨林来说，降低森林砍伐和森林退化是关键因素。这些本地行动可以给予社区在面对他们的生态环境命运时一定的自主权。然而，最终全球变暖需要被控制在1.5℃以内，逐步降低至1℃，才能够避免珊瑚礁的永久消失。
For warm-winter coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest and other ecosystems at risk of tipping, reducing non-climate stressors can help increase their resilience to tipping. For coral reefs, this includes reducing overfishing and nutrient loading. For the Amazon rainforest, reducing deforestation and forest degradation are key. These local actions can give communities some agency over the fate of their ecosystems. Ultimately, however global warming will need to be reduced below 1.5℃ towards 1℃ to prevent the permanent loss of coral reefs.
06. 近期的进展 RECENT PROGRESS
尽管最近出现了倒退，但过去两年气候进度加快。
Climate progress has accelerated in the last 2 years despite recent backsliding.
自2023年以来，全球清洁技术的采用速度显著加快，尤其是太阳能光伏和电动汽车。气候诉讼案件、自然再生倡议以及食品和纤维供应链中更可持续的消费与生产模式也呈现出蔓延之势。尽管近期，部分国家和部门在协议上存在倒退的现象，但少数派仍能积极地扭转多数派的局面，在社会、经济和科技领域产生自我强化的变革。行动的人越多，就越能影响他人行动起来。
Since 2023, there has been a radical acceleration in the uptake of clean technologies worldwide, notably solar PV power and electric vehicles. There has also been contagious spread of climate litigation cases, nature regeneration initiatives, together with the emergence of more sustainable patterns of consumption and production in food and fibre supply chains. Despite recent backsliding on commitments in some nations and sectors, a minority can still positively tip the majority, generating self-amplifying change in societyies, economies and technologies. The more people who act, the more they influence others to act.
07. 转型过渡 TRANSITION AWAY
化石燃料的加速转型过渡，需要政策授权的支持。
Policy mandates are needed to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.
那些最有效果的能源系统的环保政策，通常是那些有政策授权支持，逐渐接入清洁科技和逐渐取代化石燃料的那些政策。这包括了对于未来的石油/柴油轿车、柴油卡车和燃气锅炉在关键市场的禁令。这些政策能够使得清洁的替代品更优质也更便宜，帮助消除75%的因能源系统产生的温室气体排放物，并能够帮助化石燃料的转型过渡在一个合法、有秩序、公平的方式下进行。
The most effective policies to trigger positive tipping points in the energy system are generally policy mandates to phase in clean technologies and transition away from fossil fuelled ones. These include bans on the future sale of petrol/diesel cars, diesel trucks and gas boilers in key markets. They can make clean alternatives better and cheaper for everyone, helping eliminate the 75% of green house gas emissions linked to the energy system, and transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner.
08. 激活金融 ENABLE FINANCE
减少资本的成本有助于实现积极的临界点，尤其是在全球的南方国家。
Reducing the cost of capital enables positive tipping points especially in the Global South.
所有公共和私人资金来源都可以被调动，用来降低低碳技术和抗灾基础设施的资本成本，尤其有利于全球南方国家。气候融资的成本还必须考虑到气候行动的长期经济和健康效益，以及不作为或拖延的代价要大得多。巴库-贝伦路线图为气候融资提供了变革性的机遇。
All sources of public and private finance can be engaged to reduce the cost of capital for low-carbon technologies and resilient infrastructure, particularly for the benefit of Global South countries. The costs of climate finance must also take into account the long-term economic and health benefits of climate action and the far greater costs of inaction or delay. The Baku-to-Belem Roadmap offers a transformational opportunity for climate finance.
09. 促进正义 PROMOTE JUSTICE
积极临界点可以同时与贫困、饥饿和不平等作斗争。
Positive tipping points can simultaneously combat poverty, hunger and inequality.
积极临界点已经在世界范围内降低了能源的价格，让那些需要便宜电能的人们能够更快获得它，并使净化石燃料进口国的经济收益，这些国家占全世界四分之三的人口。使社区参与到激烈的转变中可以帮助确保脱碳过程也能实现消除饥饿、贫穷和不平等的社会问题。数字公共基础设施可以通过提供重要的财政、健康、教育和其他社会经济服务来支持公平和共荣，特别是在中低收入的国家。
Positive tipping points are already reducing energy prices worldwide, accelerating access to cheap electricity for those that lack it, and benefitting the economies of net fossil fuel importing countries where three-quarters of people live. Engaging communities in rapid transition can help ensure that decarbonisation also achieves social developmental goals of combatting hunger, poverty and inequality. Digital public infrastructure can support fairness and shared prosperity by delivering essential financial, health, educational, and other social and economic services, particularly in low- and middle income countries.
10. 食品政策转型 TIP FOOD
可持续的生产和消费有助于粮食系统的积极转型。
Sustainable production and consumption can positively tip the food system.
全球需要政策变革，以消除与粮食生产、农业活动以及森林砍伐相关的25%温室气体排放，从而扭转全球生物多样性的损失。国内的法律框架和治理、由公共和私人资金支持的可持续生产转型、消费模式转变和可持续的国际贸易政策，这些方面都对避免自然环境出现破坏性临界点至关重要。这包括了防止亚马逊雨林的大规模死亡。这些变化对于解放土地、恢复自然是必要的。
Policy changes are needed worldwide to help eliminate the 25% of greenhouse gas emissions linked to food, farming, and deforestation and in so doing, help reverse global biodiversity loss. Domestic legal frameworks and governance, shifts to sustainable production supported by public and private finance, changes in consumption and sustainable international trade policies are critical to avoid damaging tipping points in nature. This includes avoiding dieback of Amazon rainforest. These changes are necessary toliberate land for regenerating nature.
11. 再生自然 REGENERATE NATURE
自然再生的积极临界点可以推动可持续的去碳化。
Positive tipping points of nature regeneration can scale sustainable carbon removal.
自然再生可以被积极扭转，而社会临界点已开始推动包括海洋保护区在内的自然积极倡议。保护原住民权益、支持社区主导的保护计划、确保公平透明的自然评估并建立自然权益，这对触发更多自然积极临界点有益。这能助力实现《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》的目标，并对扩大从大气中可持续清除二氧化碳及限制1.5℃的过冲至关重要。
Nature regeneration can be positively tipped, and social tipping points are already spreading nature positive initiatives, including marine protected areas. Action to protect indigenous rights, support community-led conservation initiatives, ensure fair and transparent valueing of nature and establish rights of nature, can help trigger further positive tipping points for nature. This will help achieve the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets and is essential to scale up sustainable removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and limit overshoot of 1.5℃.
12. 级联变化 CASCADE CHANGE
公民社会和治理可以相互促进，产生连锁的积极变化。
Civil society and governance can catalyse each other to cascade positive change.
积极的临界点可以在社会和经济的不同部分之间产生连锁反应。通过全球穆蒂拉奥推动民间社会的集体行动，是帮助触发积极转折点的关键，也是给予政策制定者行动授权的重要途径。政策行为需要着眼于那些能够触发不同领域间连锁积极变化的“超级杠杆点”。只有通过决定性政策和民间社会的合作，才能让这个世界的发展趋势从面临生存性的气候临界点变为寻找积极临界点机会。
Positive tipping points can cascade between different parts of society and the economy. Catalysing collective action from civil society - through the Global Mutirao - is key to helping trigger positive tipping points and giving policymakers a manadate to act. Policy action should target super-leverage points that can trigger cascading positive change across sectors. Only with a combination of decisive policy and civil society action can the world tip its trajectory from facing existential climate tipping point risks to seizing positive tipping point opportunities.