本文系用户投稿，不代表机核网观点
前言
前言
2025年的全球临界点报告在一个紧急但同时充满可能性的时间发布。随着全球即将齐聚Belém参与COP30会议，科学界警告我们，生态系统正在逼近危险临界点。同时也向我们展示了正向临界点的非凡潜力：政策的自我强化转变、科技、经济，以及以前所未有的速度和规模推动的改革。
The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 comes at a time of urgency - but also of possibility. As the world prepares to gather in Belém for COP30, science warns us of ecosystems approaching dangerous thresholds. Yet this same science also shows us the extraordinary poential of positive tipping points: self-reinforcing shifts in policies, technologies, finance, and behaviours that can drive change at unprecedented speed and scale.
巴西对COP30的愿景是将临界点的叙事从恐惧转为希望。我们必须防止不可逆的伤害，并同等地触发积极临界点，推动社会走向低碳、有弹性的发展和包容性的繁荣。这需要共同的协作——一个全球的Mutirão（群组）——各国和各社区协同，自愿去建设一个不是由灾难强加的，而是通过合作建设的未来。
Brazils's vision for COP30 is to transform the narrative of tipping points from fear to hope. We must prevent irreversible harm but equally trigger positive tipping points that can propel societies towards low-carbon, resilient development and inclusive prospertiy. This requires collective effort - a Gloabal Mutirão - where all nations and communities act together, by choice, to build a future not imposed by catastrophe, but designed through cooperation.
COP30行动议程展现了这一理念。它的Granary of Solutions被认为是一个包含具体工具和倡议的储存库——可拓展、可复制，并且与《巴黎协定》保持一致——将雄心和实施关联起来。通过动员各方以及六个领域的资源——从森林，食物系统，到能源、城市、经济和科技，行动议程已经被认为是一个平台，旨在通过利用现有的解决方案，推动全球合作以触发积极临界点。
The COP30 Action Agenda embodies this approach. It Granary of FDSlutions is conceived as a reservoir of concrete tools and initiatives - scalable, replicable, and aligned with the Paris Agreement - that connect ambition with implementation. By mobilising actors and resources across six axes - from forests and food systems to energy, cities, finance, and technology, the Action Agenda has been conceived as a platform for channeling global cooperation for triggering positive tipping points of transformation leveraging solutions that already exist.
全球南方是这个事业的中流砥柱。横跨非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比地区，这些社区是再生农业、恢复红树林和森林、开发新的生物经济价值链以及推动创新金融工具以实现公正转型的先锋。这些实验并非无足轻重，它们是系统性变革的种子，如果施以团结、资源、政治意愿，就能引起全球连锁反应。
The Global South is central to this endeavour. Across Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, communities are pioneering regenerative agriculture, restoring mangroves and forests, developing new bioeconomy value chains, and advancing innovative financial instruments for just transitions. These are not peripheral experiments: they are seeds of systemic change, able to cascade into global impact if nurtured with solidarity, resources, and political will.
每一个危险临界点都可以被一个机遇临界点所反映。如果珊瑚礁正在退化，那么恢复沿海生态系统仍能推动恢复力和生计。如果森林正在遭到威胁，那么它们的再生能力将解锁碳去除、生态多样性恢复，以及可持续的繁荣。如果能源系统保持碳密集，那么可再生能源的迅猛发展和电气化进程——这一进程已由众多南方国家率先推动——或将开创一种新的发展方式，这种模式将引发连锁反应，推动其他领域实现积极变革。
Every tipping point of danger can be mirrored by a tipping point of opportunity. If coral reefs are dying back, restoration of coastal ecosystems can still drive resilience and livelihoods. If forests are at risk, their regeneration can unlock carbon removal, biodiversity recovery, and sustainable prosperity. If energy systems remain carbon-intensive, the exponential uptake of renewables and electrification - already led by many contries of the South - can define a new development model that cascades into positive change across other sectors.
我们对COP30的三个目标是明确的：
- 强化多边主义——因为只有通过联合，我们才能维护气候制度并使其发挥作用。
- 将人们的生活与气候联系起来——因为气候行动必须始于人，也必须终于人。
- 加速实施《巴黎协定》——不仅限于谈判室，通过动员每个领域，每个国际组织，和每个社区。
Our three objectives for COP30 are clear:
- Reinforce multilateralism - because only united can we safeguard the climate regime and make it deliver.
- Connect climate action to people's lives - because climate action must bein and end with people.
- Accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement - inclusively and beyond negotiation rooms, by mobilising every sector, every international institution and every community.
这份报告因此不只是一个警告，而是一个指南：它标识出风险在哪，但同时存在触手可及的积极改变系统的机会。在Belém的COP30必须被铭记为一个关键时刻，在这里我们选择去将全球各地——尤其是南方国家——的解决方案进行规模化推广，形成全球性革命新浪潮。
This report is therefore not only a warning but a guide: it maps where dangers coverge, but also where opportunities to tip systems positively are within reach. COP30 in Belém must be remembered as the moment when we chose to scale up solutions from all parts of the world - especially the South - into a global wave of renewal.
现在是时候行动起来。联合，我们就能扭转多米诺骨牌效应般的一系列系统崩溃的危险趋势。让我们建设并且互相支持，去避免一个潜在的毁灭性连锁反应。让我们转为在世界范围内不断加快启用一系列低碳并且气候适应的解决方案。让我们一起选择改变。
The time to act is now. United, we can reverse the dangerous trend towards a sequence of systems collapses in domino effect. Let us build on and support each other to prevent a potentially devastating chain-reaction. Let us trigger instead a "chain of action", for exponential low-carbon and climate-resilient solutions worldwide. Let us change by choice, together.
André Aranha Correa do Lago
COP30 候任主席
1 / 2
概要
概要
世界已经进入了一个新的阶段。全球变暖即将突破1.5℃。这将人类整体置于危险之中，多个气候临界点对数十亿人构成灾难性的风险。温水珊瑚礁正跨越其热力学临界点，并经历前所未有的退化现象，对依赖其的数亿的生物造成威胁。极地冰盖正经历临界点，导致全球海平面不可逆地上升数米，对数亿人的生活产生影响。
The world has entered a new reality. Global warming will soon exceed 1.5℃. This puts humanity in the danger zone where multiple climate tipping points pose catastrophic risks to billions of people. Already warm-water coral reefs are crossing their thermal tipping point and experiencing unprecedented dieback, threatening the livelihoods of hundreds of millions who depend on them. Polar ice sheets are approaching tipping points, committing the world to several metres of irreversible sea-level rise that will affect hundreds of millions.
每一点升温，都会增加触发更具破坏性的临界点的风险。这其中包括大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的崩溃，这会从根本上摧毁全球的食物和水资源安全，并且导致欧洲西北部陷入长期严冬的气候灾难。气候变化和森林砍伐共同作用，使得亚马逊雨林在气温升幅低于2℃时面临大规模枯死的威胁，对生态多样性造成无法估量的伤害，并且影响依赖森林的超过1亿人口。
Every fraction of additional warming increases the risk of triggering further damaging tipping points. These include a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that would radically undermine global food and water security and plunge northwest Europe into prolonged severe winters. Together, climate change and deforestation put the Amazon rainforest at rist of widespread dieback below 2℃ global warming, threatening incalculable damage to biodiversity and impacting over 100 million people who depend on the forest.
这些气候临界点风险之间存在互相影响的关系，且多数相互作用是不稳定的，意味着颠覆一个系统会让突破另一个的临界点更容易。这个影响会沿着我们依赖的生态和社会系统造成连锁反应，造成不断升级的损伤。人类面临一个潜在的灾难，无法挽回的结果。美洲人权法院成人人类享有安全气候的权利，因此防止对气候系统不可逆的伤害是一项法律义务。
These climate tipping point risks are interconnected and most of the interactions between them are destabilising, meaning tipping one system makes tipping another more likely. The resulting impacts would cascade through the ecological and social systems we depend upon, creating escalating damages. Humanity faces a potentially catasthrophic, irreversible outcome. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights recognises the right of humans to a safe climate, hence preventing irreversible harm to the climate system is a legal imperative.
我们让他变得多热，以及持续多久，对于防止气候临界点真的很重要。这种全球气温超过1.5℃的升温幅度以及持续时间必须被最小化。为了达成这个目标，全球因人类活动产生的温室气体排放必须在2030年减半（相比于2010年的水平），并在2050年达到净零排放。这需要脱碳进程需要达到前所未有的加速程度，甲烷排放物以及其他短期气候污染物的排放量快速下降，以及大气中可持续碳移除的快速规模化。
How hot we let it get and for how long really matters in preventing climate tipping points. The magnitude and duration of global temperature overshoot above 1.5℃ has to be minimised. To achieve that, global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels) and then reach net zero by 2050. This requires an unprecedented acceleration in decarbonisation, rapid mitigation of methane emissions and other short-lived climate pollutants and fast scaling of sustainable carbon removal from the atmosphere.
如果我们等到气候临界点的突破再采取行动，那就太晚了。唯一可靠的风险管理策略就是提前行动。但是防止损害性临界点的窗口正在快速关闭。当前的国家自主贡献（NDCs）和具有约束力的长期或净零排放目标仍显不足。它们仍声称全球变暖仍在继续，并且非常可能在2100年时突破2℃。这需要COP30的领导者和全球政策制定者们立刻以前所未有的速度行动起来。
If we wait to cross tipping points before we act, it will be too late. The only credible risk management strategy is to act in advance. But the window for preventing damaging tipping points is rapidly closing. Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and binding long-term or net zero targets are not enough. They still commit the world to ongoing global warming that will likely exceed 2℃ before 2100. This demands immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide.
为了达成这一激进的加速行动， 需要触发积极临界点，从而形成自我强化的科技和行为变革，实现零排放目标。在第一个全球转折点报告发布的两年间，全球的太阳能和电动车实现了飞跃式的增长。但是，包括金融在内的某些国家和部门最近也出现了一系列违背承诺的情况。
To achieve such a radical acceleration of action requires triggering positive tipping points that generate self-amplifying change in technologies and behaviours, towards zero emissions. In the two years since the first Global Tipping Points Report was published, there has been a radical acceleration in the uptake of solar power and electric vehicles worldwide. However, there has also been a recent spate of backsliding on commitments in some nations and sectors, including finance.
然而，当少数派拥有自我强化的反馈机制时，也能够扭转多数派的局面。这在清洁技术的采用中非常明显。太阳能光伏板的安装量每提升一倍，价格就降低四分之一。电池质量不断得到提升，随着部署量的增加，价格则不断下跌。这激励着更大规模的采用。气候诉讼案件和自然积极倡议的蔓延也具有自我强化的特征。人们越参与其中，就越能影响其他人去行动起来。
Nevertheless, a minority can still tip the majority when they have self-amplifying feedback on their side. This is clearly evident in clean technology adoption. Solar PV panels have dropped in price by a quarter for each doubling of their installed capacity. Batteries have improved in quality and plummeted in price the more that are deployed. This encourages further adoption. The spread of climate litigation cases and nature positive initiatives is also self-amplifying. The more people undertaking them the more they influence others to act.
积极临界点之间也开始互相影响并强化。针对交互作用的超级杠杆点的政策，能够帮助触发这种连锁式积极变化。强化民间社会与政策制定者之间的反馈，对于推动积极变革也至关重要。因此，全球Mutirão通过推动民间社会的集体行动，可能成为触发积极临界点的关键。
Positive tipping points are also starting to interact and reinforce one another. Policies targeting super-leverage points of interaction can help trigger this cascading positive change. Reinforcing feedback between civil society and policymakers is also critical to amplifying positive change. Hence the Global Mutirão, by catalysing collective action from civil society, could be key to triggering positive tipping points.
只有通过果断的政策和民间社会运动的结合，才能让世界从面临气候临界点生存危机，转变为抓住积极临界点的机会
Only with a combination of decisive policy and civil society action can the world turn from facing existential climate tipping point risks to seizing positive tipping point opportunities.
评论区
共 条评论热门最新